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  4. 2026: Trump's bad year?
Elections

2026: Trump's bad year?

Yes4.5¢5%
No95.5¢96%
$545,751.08 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceBureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$545,751.08
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Cabinet members and their immediate staff.
    • Federal Reserve Board members and regional Fed presidents.
    • Members of Congress and their senior staff.
    • White House senior staff and advisors.
    • Heads of relevant federal agencies referenced in components.
    • Employees of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau.
    • Employees with pre-release access to economic data.
    • Federal statistical agency employees involved in data compilation.
    • Contractors with access to embargoed data.
    • Campaign managers and senior campaign staff for referenced candidates.
    • Political party leadership if election/appointment components included.
    • Judicial clerks if Supreme Court components included.
    • Congressional committee staff for relevant committees.
    • Journalists with embargo access to referenced data.
    • Employees of Source Agencies who cover relevant beats.
    • Political polling organization employees if polling components included.
    • Foreign government officials involved in treaty/agreement negotiations (if applicable).
    • Diplomatic staff with knowledge of agreement timing.
    • International organization employees (IMF, World Bank, UN) if relevant.
    • Immediate family members of all above categories.
    • Household members of prohibited persons.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$545,751.08
    Price3.9¢
    +50.00% today
  • No
    Volume$545,751.08
    Price97.5¢
    -1.55% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 2026: Trump's bad year?. The outcome is Yes, with an estimated probability of 4% and a Yes contract price of $0.039. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 2026: Trump's bad year? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 2026: Trump's bad year?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 2026: Trump's bad year? is Dec 31, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for 2026: Trump's bad year? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  3. 3

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Live odds on 2026: Trump's bad year?

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2026: Trump's bad year?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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