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  4. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.99904% target
FinancialsResolved

10-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.99904% target

Winning outcome: No

This prediction market has resolved and is no longer available to trade.

Final contract prices and probabilities

Yes1¢1%
No99¢99%
$804.78 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 23, 2026 is at least the opening target yield, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 23, 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US10Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourcePyth - 10Y UST
  • Resolution date
  • Total event volume$804.78
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Final contract results

ContractResolution
Yes
No

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Related events

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
$79,631.06 Vol.
5.42% or above
5.44% or above
5.36% or above
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
| $62,176.26 Vol.
5.13% or above
5.17% or above
5.21% or above
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
$106,038.48 Vol.
4.93% or below
4.91% or below
4.9% or below
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
$66,766.72 Vol.
4.99% or below
4.76% or below
4.77% or below
How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
$88,362.34 Vol.
4.85% or below
4.84% or below
4.82% or below
How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
$92,588.18 Vol.
5.86% or above
5.71% or above
5.69% or above
How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
$51,860.54 Vol.
5.22% or above
5.31% or above
5.32% or above
How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
$87,266.90 Vol.
4.75% or below
4.63% or below
4.59% or below
How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
$107,956.28 Vol.
5.25% or below
5.24% or below
5.28% or below
How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
| $34,765.02 Vol.
4.93% or above
4.95% or above
5.07% or above
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
| $24,661.24 Vol.
5.50% or higher
Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?
| $38,773.04 Vol.
6% or higher
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
| $113,481.08 Vol.
5% or above
5.1% or above
5.25% or above
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
| $18,961.92 Vol.
Above .9%
Above .7%
Above 1.00%
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
$76,614.40 Vol.
5.45% or above
5.4% or above
5.5% or above
How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
$36,827.88 Vol.
5.7% or above
5.75% or above
5.8% or above
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
| $295,235.90 Vol.
5.75% or above
6.25% or above
4.75% or above

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