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  4. Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
Financials

Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?

Yes1¢1%
No99¢99%
$24,661.24 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year generic constant-maturity tenor is at least 5.50% on any business day from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the 10-year generic constant-maturity Treasury tenor and the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate. The observation period is from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive. A published rate of 5.50% or higher for any business day in that period satisfies the threshold; intraday values are not considered. Rates are expressed to two decimal places. Revisions after expiration are not considered. Treasury does not publish on weekends or federal holidays; the contract's preceding-business-day provision applies. If the payout condition occurs, expiration may move earlier under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration is 10:00 AM ET one week after the final day of the observation period. Settlement is no later than the following day, subject to Rule 7.1.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceU.S. Department of the Treasury
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$24,661.24
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$24,661.24
    Price4¢
    — today
  • No
    Volume$24,661.24
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?. The outcome is 5.50% or higher, with an estimated probability of 1% and a Yes contract price of $0.04. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026? is Nov 1, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using U.S. Department of the Treasury as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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$107,956.28 Vol.
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5.24% or below
5.28% or below
How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
| $34,765.02 Vol.
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Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?
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| $295,235.90 Vol.
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4.75% or above

Live odds on Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?

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Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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