Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness is supported by a durable multi-year unit expansion runway, highlighted by the Spartan Fitness deal for 117 Club Pilates studios across ten states over the next six years and management’s view of a five-plus-year new-studio runway. International momentum also strengthens the case, with Club Pilates opening its 200th studio in June and surpassing 500 international studios system-wide, while the Starbucks protein coffee collaboration broadens brand visibility to about 120,000 Starbucks and Pepsi employees. Even with same-store sales still negative and new fill-in studios pressuring run-rate AUV, the franchise base, strong opening AUVs, and unit-growth model provide a credible path for system-wide sales growth and upside if assumptions prove conservative.

Xponential Fitness is facing a deteriorating operating backdrop, with 2Q revenue of $66.0 million and AEBITDA of $21.9 million both below expectations as North America comps fell 6.8% and system-wide sales were flat despite added studio openings. Management’s cut to 2026 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and net new studio openings signals that the 2H recovery once expected is not materializing, while merchandise transition issues and elevated marketing spend are pressuring margins and execution. Heavy legal and lease-related payments, combined with about 5x net leverage at 6/30 and only modest expected FCF improvement by YE27, leave limited room to service debt and fund growth.