Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness is attractive because even after management lowered 2026 guidance to $250mn-$260mn of revenue and $91mn-$97mn of EBITDA, the updated outlook still implies a sizable franchise platform with meaningful scale and the ability to support profitability despite near-term pressure. The company’s diversified five-brand model across Pilates, barre, stretching, functional training, and yoga provides multiple growth vectors, and the fact that the revised guidance now assumes 2H26 comp growth in line with 1H26 performance, which declined approximately 6.5%, suggests expectations are now more realistic and potentially easier to beat if pricing and internal initiatives gain traction. While execution and consumer-preference risks remain, the strategic review also creates a meaningful event-driven upside case, and the business’s broad addressable market plus international expansion opportunities support a constructive fundamental outlook.

Xponential Fitness is facing a fundamentally challenged outlook because 2Q revenue of $66.0 million and EBITDA of $21.9 million both missed estimates, while North America comparable sales fell 6.8% and Club Pilates comps declined 5.0%, signaling weakening underlying demand even against easier comparisons. The business is also absorbing material near-term pressure from elevated legal and settlement costs, with about $18 million paid during 1H26, another $9 million expected in 2H26, $17 million in 2027/2028, plus roughly $6 million of lease liabilities, while SG&A rose 33% and marketing spend has been increased despite soft comps and a merchandising transition that has not gone smoothly. Although studio growth and recurring revenue of about 80% of total revenue offer some support, management still lowered FY26 guidance across revenue, AEBITDA, system-wide sales, and net new openings, and the combination of declining AUV, higher marketing intensity, and a more fragile cash flow profile makes it harder to justify confidence in sustainable EBITDA growth.