Waste Management (WM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waste Management, as the largest integrated provider in the solid and medical waste sector, reported significant growth in landfill volumes, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand across various waste segments. The Collection & Disposal segment demonstrated robust financial performance, with an EBITDA margin expansion of 100 basis points year-over-year and an 8% growth in EBITDA, driven by effective pricing strategies and operational efficiencies. Additionally, the healthcare segment contributed meaningfully to revenue and EBITDA, further reinforcing Waste Management's financial stability and positive growth outlook amidst broader market conditions.

The financial excerpts indicate several factors contributing to a negative outlook for Waste Management's stock, including lower-than-expected sales and adjusted EBITDA, which totalled $124.4 million compared to estimates of $110 million. Revenue projections were revised down, with FY25 guidance lowered to a range of $25.275 billion to $25.475 billion, primarily due to anticipated declines in commodity prices and underperforming segments such as WM Healthcare Solutions. Additionally, the adjusted free cash flow was reported at $996.2 million, falling short of expectations, raising concerns about the company’s ability to meet its annual free cash flow guidance amidst a challenging market environment.