Upwork Inc (UPWK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Upwork is supported by a resilient second quarter, with GSV of $966.4M roughly in line with expectations, revenue of $191.7M beating consensus by 0.9%, and adjusted EBITDA of $64.1M topping estimates by 11.4% at a 33.4% margin. Its positive outlook is reinforced by Enterprise momentum, including Lifted tracking toward roughly 25% y/y GSV growth in 2026, positive early customer feedback, a healthy late-stage sales pipeline, and EOR GSV up 29% y/y as employment infrastructure is brought in-house to improve margins. The company also has expanding AI-driven demand, with Business Plus GSV up 174% y/y, the AI Strategy & Consulting category up 51% y/y, and the MCP server embedding Upwork into AI workflows, while paid acquisition efficiency improved 22% q/q and should benefit from $5-$10M of added spend in the 2H26.

Upwork is facing a weakening core marketplace as active clients fell 4% y/y to 763,000 and 3% q/q, showing that AI-driven automation, softer labor demand, and reduced Google referral traffic are eroding volume even as GSV per active client reached a record $5,230. The negative view is reinforced by management’s second FY26 guide-down, with revenue lowered to $730M-$750M and Q3 revenue expected at $176M-$184M, implying that both AI substitution and structural SEO pressure are likely to persist through Q3 and Q4. Although take rate expansion and margin discipline support adjusted EBITDA of $225M-$235M for the full year, rising marketing spend and weaker new-client acquisition suggest monetization is offsetting, rather than reversing, underlying marketplace deterioration.