Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Union Pacific is supported by broad-based demand strength, with Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.41 beating estimates, revenue up 12%, and an adjusted operating ratio of 59.2% reflecting disciplined execution, productivity gains, and record operating metrics. Its outlook is further strengthened by rising yields, robust domestic intermodal conversion from tight truck capacity, record grain and industrial trends, and management’s raised guidance to high-single digit EPS growth, all of which suggest incremental volumes should flow efficiently through the network. In addition, the MoU with CN improves regulatory visibility and network fluidity around Chicago while preserving customer optionality, reinforcing a favorable fundamental and strategic backdrop for the company.

Union Pacific is facing a fundamentally challenged mix as a 2% y/y rise in Q2 RTMs was concentrated in Grain and Intermodal, while Coal & Renewables RTMs fell 12% y/y amid high inventory levels, low natural gas prices, and the lapping of new business that began in Q2/25. Its reliance on cyclical end markets and roughly 10% of revenue tied to Mexico leaves earnings exposed to tariffs, unfavorable currency moves, weak industrial demand, severe weather, and potential share loss from trucking advances or the UNP-NSC merger. Even with $24.5 billion of revenue in 2025 and a broad 30,000-mile network, the persistent structural pressure on coal, cross-border freight, and operating volatility supports a negative outlook.