Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Trade Desk demonstrated strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, with sales increasing by 14% year-over-year to reach $847 million, indicating robust demand for its advertising platform. The company reported a global gross spend of $13.4 billion, up approximately 11% year-over-year, suggesting an improvement in its take rate to 21.6% and an EBITDA of $400 million, which also grew by 14% year-over-year, exceeding guidance by $25 million. For the first quarter of 2026, the company provided revenue guidance of at least a 10% increase year-over-year to $678 million, with excluding political contributions indicating an even stronger growth rate of 19%.

The Trade Desk is facing significant challenges, as evidenced by a notable EBITDA margin compression projected for 1Q26, anticipated to drop to approximately 28.7%, which is a concern given that it represents the narrowest guidance beat since the company’s post-pandemic introduction to the public market. Additionally, the 1Q26 revenue guidance of at least $678 million signifies a deceleration to only 10% growth, alongside a modest 6% growth projection for EBITDA, reflecting a shift from growth acceleration to an investment year. Investor concerns are amplified by weaker macroeconomic conditions, lackluster results, and competitive pressures from major players like Amazon, leading to substantial downward revisions in EBITDA estimates and overall financial outlook.