TT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trane Technologies is experiencing significant growth in its CHVAC applied equipment orders, with a 60% increase in Q2 2025 and a 120% increase over a two-year period, which positions the company favorably for future aftermarket revenue multiplication of 8x-10x. Additionally, the company reported an adjusted operating margin of 20.3%, reflecting a 90 basis points year-over-year expansion and surpassing consensus estimates, driven largely by a 130 basis points improvement in the Americas region. Regional performance also indicates organic growth of 9% in the Americas, aligning with prior estimates, further reinforcing the company’s strong market position.

Trane Technologies has revised its outlook for the Americas residential segment to flat year-over-year, a significant downgrade from previous expectations of modest to high single-digit growth, primarily due to a canister shortage and elevated inventory levels in the channel. This change reflects broader industry challenges, including sluggish new home construction and existing home sales, which are likely to impact demand for HVAC equipment. Furthermore, the company's reliance on North America for over 80% of its revenue raises concerns, as regional economic slowdowns could disproportionately affect Trane's financial performance.