Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply's financial outlook is bolstered by a projected modest expansion in gross margin, anticipated to increase by 17 basis points to 36.6% in the coming year, alongside a sales increase of 3.3% to $3.90 billion. Inventory levels are well-managed, showing an 8.6% year-over-year increase while maintaining efficiency on a per-store basis, which positions the company favorably amidst inflationary pressures contributing 1-2% to full-year comparable sales. Finally, early indicators for Q1 reveal positive trends in sales driven by seasonal demand, enhancing the company's potential for sustained performance in its key market segments.

Tractor Supply's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a disappointing Q4 2025 performance, with earnings falling short of expectations and operating margins declining for the second consecutive year. Key factors contributing to this downturn include significant softening in discretionary spending, particularly in big-ticket categories, and a historically quiet storm season that adversely affected sales related to emergency response. Furthermore, the company is projecting lower revenue growth in 2026, with a revised EPS estimate for 2027 reflecting a modest comp of just 3.5%, indicating sustained challenges in revenue generation and margin pressure.