TC Energy (TRP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TC Energy is positioned to benefit from durable North American natural gas demand growth to 181 Bcf/d by 2035, with 70% of the increase concentrated in the U.S. Heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, where it already has entrenched infrastructure and incumbent advantages. Its asset mix is highly defensive, with over 95% of EBITDA underpinned by rate regulation or long-term contracts, while recent settlements on the Canadian Mainline, ANR, and Great Lakes should stabilize $1.5-2.0 billion of EBITDA and support earnings quality. At the same time, the company’s growth runway remains visible through a $23.2 billion secured program, more than $15 billion of additional projects in origination, and 2026 EBITDA guidance of $11.6-11.8 billion, all while maintaining disciplined leverage near its 4.75x debt/EBITDA target.

TC Energy is viewed negatively because its core pipeline business faces material operational and regulatory risks, including line breaks, construction delays, denied approvals, and the chance that incremental costs cannot be recovered. Market sentiment is also pressured by broad skepticism toward hydrocarbon infrastructure, while Mexico’s disconnected network and single-customer exposure to CFE increase concentration risk and limit strategic flexibility. Although Canadian gas pipelines produced EBITDA of $919 million and Mexico delivered $432 million, the stock remains vulnerable to leverage deterioration, dilutive funding, and project execution issues, even as Bruce Power contributed roughly 10% of 2027E EBITDA with 88% availability in Q1/26.