TJX (TJX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TJX Companies is expected to see operating margins expand to 11.5%, bolstered by strong performance across its segments, with Marmaxx operating margin increasing by 60 basis points year-over-year to 14.9%. The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in inventory, totaling $9.4 billion, which supports its ability to source outstanding deals that enhance its competitive pricing strategy. Additionally, total comparable store sales rose by 5%, reflecting improved consumption trends, while gross margins are estimated to improve to 30.9% for the year, positioning TJX for sustainable revenue growth in the long term.

TJX Companies is facing multiple headwinds that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including expected earnings per share (EPS) for 4Q25 projected between $1.33 and $1.36, which while an increase from the previous year, falls short of consensus expectations. The company is also contending with challenges such as rising tariffs, notably a 55% tariff from India, along with a broader retail environment described as choppy, which may lead to excess inventory and shrinking margins. Additionally, TJX's operational metrics indicate increased costs associated with selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and notable risks such as heightened retail competition, geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in consumer behavior that could further impact financial performance.