Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target is a leading discount retailer in the United States, generating over $106 billion in fiscal 2024 sales from nearly 2,000 stores, with a diverse revenue composition across various product categories. Approximately 30% of Target's sales come from its private-label brands, and the company continues to invest in its physical store base, with plans to increase capital spending to $5 billion in FY'26 to enhance store remodeling and technology initiatives. Furthermore, Target's scale positions it favorably against smaller competitors, with supply chain advantages providing additional potential for market share growth, especially as improvements in the consumer spending environment may positively impact sales performance.

Target's stock outlook is negatively affected by a decline in store comparable sales, which fell by 3.8% in the most recent quarter and show a deceleration in traffic trends, with a three-year stacked comparable sales decline of 7.3%. The company's Q3 e-commerce growth remains modest at 2.4% year-over-year and significantly lags behind competitors, highlighting the challenges in digital growth. Additionally, Target's downward revision of its 2025 earnings per share guidance to a range of $7-$8, down from $7-$9, reflects a more cautious outlook amid ongoing volatility in the retail environment.