State Street (STT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

State Street is supported by a powerful combination of scale, with about $54 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $5.7 trillion in assets under management, plus a diversified global franchise across more than 100 markets and 51,500 employees. Its 3Q26 results reinforce the case, as record revenue of $4.0 billion, EPS of $3.69, ROTCE of 25.1%, and record AUC/A of $59.17 trillion showed that fee growth, operating leverage, and NII expansion can compound together even after a quarter with timing-related revenue pressure. The outlook remains constructive because management kept fee guidance at 13% to 14%, raised NII expectations to 15% to 16%, expects more than 500 bps of operating leverage, and is accelerating buybacks while targeting approximately $1 billion of annual run-rate transformation benefits by 2029.

State Street is facing a fundamentally challenged setup because fee revenue missed estimates by $0.14, with weaker servicing, FX, and other fees outweighing modest strength in management and securities finance. NII also came in below expectations as net interest margin slipped to 1.12%, while the company remains highly exposed to global equity markets and could be hurt by a prolonged downturn in capital markets that pressures transaction volumes and asset levels. Although expenses improved sequentially, total expenses still reached $2.12 billion and rose 6.1% year over year, while the structurally loss-making Other segment and macro/geopolitical risks add further earnings volatility.