ShotSpotter (SSTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SoundThinking is positioned well because its SafetySmart platform is deeply embedded in police workflows, creating high switching costs and a recurring revenue base supported by solid retention. The company closed more than $23M of TCV across multi-year renewals, including ShotSpotter, CrimeTracer, and key municipal customers, while Detroit’s 9-month extension signals continued demand ahead of an RFP expected to conclude in early 2027. Its market leadership in acoustic detection, broadening product suite, and a potentially material Chicago win-back opportunity that could add about $10M of ARR and roughly $2M of annual EBITDA underpin a constructive fundamental outlook.

SoundThinking is facing weakening fundamentals as 2Q26 revenue fell 8% year over year to $23.9M, adjusted EBITDA of $1.2M missed expectations, and FY26 revenue guidance was cut to $99M-$100M with adjusted EBITDA margin guidance lowered to 8% to 9%. The core ShotSpotter business is showing signs of stagnation, with coverage essentially flat at 1,073 miles versus 1,076 miles in F4Q24, while longer sales cycles, execution problems, and heightened scrutiny around surveillance and ALPR technology are constraining bookings and deployments. Financial flexibility is also limited, as cash and cash equivalents fell to $6.4M from $15.8M at FY25-end, and newer offerings like CrimeTracer, PlateRanger, and SafePointe have yet to produce enough broad-based traction to offset the slowdown.