ShotSpotter (SSTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SoundThinking is improving its fundamental profile through positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.2M in 2Q versus about negative $100K in 1Q, while opex fell to $16.2M from $16.7M and workforce actions are expected to generate about $4M in annualized savings. Customer durability remains strong, with more than $23M of TCV in multi-year renewals and systems that are deeply embedded in police workflows, creating high switching costs and reinforcing recurring revenue. The outlook is further supported by leadership in acoustic detection, a broadening public safety platform, and a potentially meaningful Chicago ShotSpotter win-win that could add about $10M in ARR and roughly $2M in annual EBITDA based on current FY27 assumptions.

SoundThinking is facing a sharp deterioration in its core business as 2Q26 revenue fell 8% year over year to $23.9M, adjusted EBITDA missed expectations at $1.2M, and management cut FY26 revenue guidance to $99M-$100M while slashing adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 8%-9%. The fundamental issue is that ShotSpotter, which still drives nearly 90% of revenue, is showing stagnant coverage, longer sales cycles, weaker bookings and go-lives, and a heavier reliance on renewals, while newer products like CrimeTracer, PlateRanger, and SafePointe have not yet offset the slowdown. Cash and cash equivalents dropped to $6.4M from $15.8M at FY25-end, leaving limited flexibility to fund growth investments, absorb execution setbacks, or resolve litigation and other operating pressures.