Spire Global (SPIR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Spire Global is attractive fundamentally because its commercial business is becoming stickier, with multi-year subscriptions, deeper workflow integration, and 76% of 2026 guidance already under contract, which improves revenue visibility and reduces demand risk. Its outlook is further strengthened by execution gains in higher-value RF geolocation and weather intelligence, including Q1 revenue of $15.8M, adjusted EBITDA ahead of expectations, 19 RFGL satellites deployed in Q1, HyMS “first light,” and more than $150M of NOAA opportunities under review. Financially, the $70M equity raise, $49.5M quarter-end cash, and no debt provide liquidity to scale satellite capacity, while gross margin expansion and operating leverage should improve as new contracts convert.

Spire Global is facing a fundamentally weak outlook because the official cancellation of the WildFireSat program removes a potentially meaningful CAD$71.8M contract opportunity, underscoring both project execution risk and reliance on government programs. Management says the loss should not affect 2026 revenue guidance, but that is only because the program had already been excluded after the pause announced on the 4Q25 earnings call, highlighting limited visibility and a fragile demand base. With 2026 revenue guided to just $75M-$85M, alongside a non-GAAP operating loss of ($37.8M) to ($32.6M) and adjusted EBITDA loss of ($26.0M) to ($20.7M), the company remains deeply unprofitable amid customer concentration, competition, and reporting-control risks.