Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. is positioned positively due to its innovative product candidate, DCCR, which has shown significant therapeutic potential in activating KATP channels across various tissues, indicating a promising mechanism for treating rare diseases. Financial metrics in the company's discounted cash flow analysis reflect a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7%, which underscores a manageable risk profile, despite a notably aggressive terminal growth rate projection of -80% post-patent expiration in 2035. Additionally, the low incidence rates of the targeted conditions, such as diabetes and pulmonary edema, suggest a niche market that may enhance the product's value proposition within the biopharmaceutical sector.

The stock of Soleno Therapeutics has experienced a significant 20% decline over the past month, indicating growing investor concern. A major factor hindering the uptake of its product, VYKAT, is apparent payer restrictions, which are the leading cause limiting prescriptions despite favorable survey outcomes regarding patient compliance and safety. Furthermore, the backlog in patient visits due to prior approvals may delay new prescriptions into 2H25, reducing immediate revenue potential and contributing to the company's negative outlook.