Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks is viewed positively because its revitalization under Brian Niccol is still in early innings, with operations, marketing, menu innovation, and loyalty all driving a stronger traffic and frequency recovery while transactions have improved meaningfully even though they still trailed 2019’s level by about 12% as of 2Q26. The company’s scale of more than 41,000 global locations across 80+ countries, a 35.6 million-member rewards base, and strong brand pricing power support sustained same-store sales momentum, while North America is expected to benefit from 6.1%, 5.0%, and 4.0% same-store sales in 2026-28 alongside low-40% coffee share and roughly 74% of revenue from North America. The outlook is further strengthened by margin expansion potential from the $2B cost savings program, easing coffee inflation, sales leverage, and refranchising of international markets, which together support estimated F2028 EPS of $3.94, a 15.1% consolidated EBIT margin, and average 2026-28 EPS growth of 23%.

Starbucks is facing a negative fundamental setup because, despite incremental confidence in $2B of cumulative cost savings in 2026-28 and a clearer path to supply-chain efficiencies, management has not provided enough visibility into how sales leverage will translate into EPS, leaving the market to question the durability and pace of margin expansion. The company’s recent results were mixed, with North America same-store sales strength offset by International same-store sales of 2.6% that missed the 4% estimate and China same-store sales of +0.5% that fell well short of the 3.4% consensus, while Channel Development margins of 40.5% also came in below both the 41.7% estimate and 43.6% consensus, underscoring uneven operating performance across segments. With the stock already implying aggressive improvement at about 40 times the new CY26 EPS estimate, and with management prioritizing leverage reduction below 3x and a minimum cash balance above $2B over share repurchases in F2026 and 2027, the downside risk remains that valuation has outrun the company’s still-unproven ability to convert traffic gains, cost savings, and operational changes into sustained earnings power.