Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks demonstrates strong financial performance, with same-store sales growth of 3.8% in North America and 2.5% in international markets for fiscal year 2026, indicating positive trends in customer transactions and customization options. The company's expansion strategy remains robust, with planned new store openings of approximately 1,360 in the current year and a projected 1,920 in fiscal year 2026, underscoring a commitment to growth. Additionally, significant improvements in consumer value perceptions across all age groups contribute to an optimistic outlook for the brand’s future revenue potential.

Starbucks faces a negative outlook primarily due to significant margin erosion, with the operating margin falling 180 basis points below estimates and a 730 basis point decrease in the North America segment margin compared to the previous year. Additionally, the forecast for North American revenue has been downgraded following the closure of 438 underperforming stores, indicating potential long-term impacts on growth. The company is also grappling with external economic challenges, such as rising coffee costs and weakened sales in key markets like Japan and China, coupled with declining consumer perceptions of value and quality.