Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks demonstrates a strong positive outlook, bolstered by same-store sales growth of 3.8% in North America and 2.5% internationally for FY26, reflecting a recovery in transactions along with increased food attachment and customization in customer experiences. The company plans for robust store expansion, with approximately 1,360 new locations projected for the current year and an estimated 1,920 in FY26, indicating a commitment to growth despite a slowdown in major markets. Additionally, the significant increase in value perception scores across all age cohorts suggests heightened customer satisfaction and engagement, further enhancing investor sentiment.

Starbucks has experienced significant margin erosion, with its operating margin falling 180 basis points below estimates and a notable 730 basis point decrease in the North America segment margin compared to the previous year. The company's revenue forecasts have been adversely affected by the closure of 438 underperforming stores in North America during fiscal 2025, which is anticipated to diminish the revenue mix benefit. Additionally, there are concerns regarding economic challenges, promotional missteps, and rising coffee costs, alongside a weakening sales performance in key markets such as Japan and prolonged traffic weaknesses in the U.S. and China, which could further suppress same-store sales.