Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks has demonstrated a positive trajectory in same-store sales, achieving a 3.8% increase in North America and 2.5% in International markets for FY26, attributed to improvements in transaction recovery, food attachment, and customization. The company is also planning to expand its footprint, with approximately 1,360 new stores expected in the current year and 1,920 in FY26, indicating a growth rate of 3.3% and 4.5%, respectively. Additionally, significant improvements in value perception scores across all age cohorts suggest a restored investor sentiment, further supporting a favorable outlook for the brand.

The analysis indicates significant financial challenges for Starbucks, highlighted by a notable operating margin erosion of 180 basis points below expectations, with the North America segment experiencing a steep decline of 730 basis points year-over-year. In addition, there are concerns regarding weakening sales in international markets such as Japan and China, exacerbated by economic challenges, promotional missteps, and elevated coffee costs. As a result, revised earnings estimates for FY2026 and FY2027 are lower, indicating that earnings recovery is projected to lag behind sales improvements, creating a less favorable outlook for the company.