The RealReal (REAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The RealReal has demonstrated significant growth in its key performance indicators, with active buyers increasing by 23,000 quarter-over-quarter, reaching an all-time high of over 1 million. The company's gross merchandise volume is projected at $1.8 billion for 2024, underpinned by a revenue growth of 17% and improved operational efficiency, evidenced by a 470 basis points leverage in non-GAAP operating expenses and a 380 basis points expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, reaching 5.4%. With a strong focus on sourcing and authenticating high-value luxury items, The RealReal maintains a competitive take rate of approximately 36%, which positions it favorably for continued revenue and profitability growth moving forward.

The RealReal's sales projections for 2026 indicate a potential decline of 10%-15% below earlier estimates, which raises concerns about the company's growth trajectory. The company's dependence on attracting new consignors through marketing efforts is precarious, particularly in a market where consumer interest in luxury items has waned due to factors such as lack of innovation and high price points. Furthermore, macroeconomic conditions may adversely affect luxury resale demand, compounded by risks associated with counterfeit goods and increasing competition from non-authenticated resale platforms, all of which could further diminish The RealReal’s market share and overall profitability.