RCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Royal Caribbean Group has demonstrated a substantial enhancement in its financial performance, evidenced by an increase in Return on Capital (ROC) from 13.80% to 15.40% over the last twelve months, with expectations of further growth to 18.03% in the near term. Additionally, the company reported a 12.10% year-over-year rise in net sales revenue, climbing from $15.33 billion to $17.18 billion for the twelve months ending June 2025. Furthermore, Economic Profit (EP) saw a remarkable increase of 31.64% year-over-year, growing from $1.19 billion to $1.57 billion during the same period, underscoring the company's strong financial trajectory.

Royal Caribbean's financial outlook presents challenges, primarily due to external factors impacting earnings per share (EPS) guidance, with management noting a $0.05 headwind from adverse weather and political unrest in Haiti. The company's fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS target, showing a year-over-year growth of approximately 32%, is contrasted by soft guidance for fiscal year 2026, reflecting anticipated "anemic" cost growth amid increasing capacity and a portfolio of private destinations coming online. Additionally, the timing of new ship deliveries is expected to hinder yield performance, as initial low load factors post-launch can negatively affect anticipated revenues during the second half of fiscal year 2025.