Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oscar Health Inc. demonstrated robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, with revenues of $2.86 billion, reflecting a 29.0% year-over-year growth, driven by strong retention rates and an increase in members through special enrollment periods. The company's medical loss ratio (MLR) improved to 91.1%, a significant enhancement of 1200 bps year-over-year and 1560 bps sequentially, indicating effective cost management in response to rising market morbidity. Furthermore, projections for enrollment weighted direct policy premium per member per month (PMPM) are optimistic, anticipating increases of 28.5% in 2026 and 16.9% in 2027, suggesting continued growth momentum for the company's insurance offerings.

Oscar Health Inc is facing a negative outlook as projected enrollment in the Individual ACA Marketplace is expected to decline significantly, with estimates suggesting a decrease of 20% to 30% from approximately 24.3 million lives in CY25 to about 18.2 million in CY26, driven primarily by the potential expiration of E-APTCs. The company's shift in plan mix, with a predicted decline in Silver plan offerings and an increase in Bronze plans, could further contribute to revenue challenges and lower margins, as healthier members are anticipated to either leave or select lower-cost options. Although there is a modest improvement in the SG&A ratio and adjusted EBITDA margin, these metrics may not compensate for the anticipated loss of enrollment and revenue in the upcoming years.