Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oscar Health Inc. demonstrated robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, achieving a revenue of $2.86 billion, which reflects a 29.0% year-over-year increase driven by strong member retention and enrollment growth. The company's Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) improved significantly to 91.1%, representing an increase of 1200 basis points year-over-year and 1560 basis points sequentially, indicating effective cost management despite marketwide morbidity challenges. Additionally, projections for enrollment weighted direct policy premium per member per month (PMPM) show a substantial growth of 28.5% in 2026 and 16.9% in 2027, suggesting continued strength in the company’s premium revenue trajectory.

The analysis indicates a projected decline in the Silver mix of Oscar Health's insurance plans, moving from 57.5% in CY26 to 51.0% in CY27, while the Bronze mix is expected to increase significantly, suggesting a shift towards lower-margin products. Furthermore, the potential expiration of Enhanced Advance Premium Tax Credits (E-APTCs) could lead to a steep decrease in Individual ACA Marketplace enrollment, estimated to fall by 20% to 30%, resulting in a significant reduction of members from approximately 24.3 million in CY25 to 18.2 million in CY26. Despite some improvements in SG&A ratios and adjusted EBITDA margins, the anticipated enrollment losses and member attrition driven by premium costs may severely impact Oscar Health's financial health and overall growth prospects.