Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oscar Health Inc. has demonstrated a strong financial performance with a second quarter 2025 (2Q25) revenue increase of 29.0% year-over-year to $2.86 billion, driven by robust member retention and new additions. The company's medical loss ratio (MLR) of 91.1% in 2Q25, while slightly above consensus expectations, reflects an improvement of 1200 basis points year-over-year, indicating effective cost management despite increased marketwide morbidity. Additionally, projections for enrollment weighted direct policy premiums are promising, with expected growth of 28.5% year-over-year in calendar year 2026 and 16.9% in calendar year 2027, suggesting a positive trajectory for revenue growth and profitability.

Oscar Health faces significant challenges in its forecasted enrollment figures, with projections indicating a potential decline in Individual ACA Marketplace enrollment of 20% to 30% in CY26 due to the possible expiration of the E-APTCs, which is expected to result in the loss of approximately 6.1 million members year-over-year. The company's changing insurance mix, with a decline in the Silver plan and an increase in the Bronze plan, may also signal a deterioration in the quality of customer base, thereby impacting overall profitability and growth. Although there has been a slight improvement in the SG&A ratio, the anticipated adjusted EBITDA margin remains low at 2.4%, reflecting ongoing operational challenges amidst a contracting member base.