Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oscar Health Inc. reported a significant year-over-year revenue growth of 29.0% in 2Q25, reaching $2.86 billion, driven by an increase in retention, market open enrollment growth, and new member additions. The company's medical loss ratio (MLR) improved to 91.1%, well below consensus expectations, reflecting effective management of costs despite a rise in marketwide morbidity. Furthermore, projections indicate substantial growth in enrollment weighted direct policy premiums per member per month (PMPM), anticipated to rise by 28.5% in CY26 and 16.9% in CY27, underscoring a strong growth trajectory for the company.

Oscar Health Inc faces significant challenges that could negatively impact its stock performance. The company anticipates a decline in Silver plan enrollment, alongside a projected drop of 20% to 30% in individual ACA Marketplace enrollment due to the potential expiration of E-APTCs by the end of CY25, risking a loss of approximately 6.1 million members year-over-year. Additionally, despite achieving some cost efficiencies with a reduced SG&A ratio, the expected attrition of healthier members and increased adoption of lower-cost Bronze plans may hinder overall revenue growth and profitability.