ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding AG has demonstrated strong financial growth, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rising approximately 28%, contributing to an increase in sales mix to 39.6%, while wholesale sales also exhibited robust growth at 23%. The company's strategic expansion in high-growth markets, particularly in Latin America, is expected to further enhance revenue, highlighted by the anticipated opening of a retail location in Santiago, Chile, as well as impressive sales growth in the Americas region, which saw a 26% increase in 2024. Additionally, the positive impact of brand awareness and innovative product offerings, alongside an expanded athlete endorsement roster, positions On Holding favorably for future performance and market presence.

On Holding AG faces a potentially profound downside in its stock value, primarily due to lofty valuation multiples that may not align with projected growth rates; 4Q25 growth expectations have been revised to the low-to-mid 20% range, which could result in FY26 revenues being approximately 5% below targets. Furthermore, the anticipated contraction in revenue growth from the 62.5% expected in 2025 is exacerbated by the effects of tariffs on U.S. imports and an unfavorable foreign exchange headwind linked to a strengthening Swiss franc. Finally, while margins may be stabilized through a slowdown in investment, the inability to achieve any margin expansion beyond 2024 would likely lead to a significantly lower adjusted EBITDA forecast for FY26.