ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding is supported by a premium brand position, industry-leading growth, and a clear runway to deepen global penetration as it expands from running into lifestyle, apparel, golf, and global football. Management’s framework points to at least CHF 5.6 billion of revenue in FY29, gross margins of at least 65%, and adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 22%, with growth increasingly powered by DTC rising toward 50% of sales and selective wholesale expansion. The outlook is further strengthened by proactive inventory discipline, a cash-rich balance sheet with about $1 billion authorized for repurchases, and sustained product innovation that has helped drive strong demand across North America, EMEA, and APAC.

On Holding is vulnerable if its growth trajectory “hits a wall,” because its lofty valuation leaves little room for a slowdown after years of premium expectations. The bear case hinges on sales growth slipping to sub-20% in FY26 and FY27 and then potentially to single digits, while margin expansion beyond 2026 looks limited if management only slows investment rather than reaccelerating demand. In addition, the company’s high gross margins could erode if promotional retail conditions, weaker brand heat, higher markdowns, slower DTC demand, and new tariffs force more discounting.