ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding is viewed positively because its growth is being driven by a broad, premium brand platform rather than a single product cycle: over 75% of the ~CHF 2 billion it plans to add by FY29 should come from core Running, Sneakers, and Apparel, while new openings in Golf and Global Football broaden the runway. Its FY29 plan for at least CHF 5.6 billion in revenue, at least 65% gross margin, and at least 22% adjusted EBITDA margin suggests both strong top-line scaling and meaningful operating leverage, supported by a higher DTC mix, more stores, and selective wholesale expansion. Execution risks remain, but improving sellout momentum, strong brand demand, and a $1 billion repurchase authorization with about $1.5 billion of cash further reinforce the favorable fundamental outlook.

On Holding is vulnerable to a sharp de-rating if its brand momentum stalls, because the stock already reflects lofty multiples and the bear case implies growth slowing from sub-20% in FY26 and FY27 to the single digits. As a footwear-heavy business with more than 90% of sales from athletic shoes and 58% of revenue still through wholesale, it faces meaningful exposure to a promotional retail environment, discounting, and weaker direct-to-consumer demand, which could limit gross margin expansion to less than 150 bps in 2026. Additional pressure from new tariffs, increased competition, supplier concentration, and execution risk in distribution expansion could keep SG&A deleverage high and cap margin improvement beyond 2026.