ONB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Old National Bancorp is favored because its high-quality, relationship-driven deposit franchise and conservative underwriting support durable earnings power, with core deposits that have been with the bank for more than five years and funding costs below peers. Its expanding footprint in larger MSAs, record commercial pipeline, and organic loan growth outlook of 6%-8% should lift NII and help sustain peer-leading profitability, while core fee income from wealth, capital markets, and treasury services adds diversification. Combined with benign credit, strong capital returns through buybacks, and a path to 1.4%-1.5% ROAs and 17%-18% ROTCEs in 2027/28, the fundamentals support a constructive outlook.

Old National Bancorp is facing a negative fundamental setup because slower-than-expected loan, core deposit, and fee income growth, along with pressure on net interest margin, could weaken earnings momentum and reduce the benefit of its mostly variable-rate balance sheet. Its $50.8 billion loan portfolio was commercially focused at 6/30, with CRE at 44% of loans and CRE/total capital at 254%, leaving the bank exposed if asset quality deteriorates or macro conditions worsen. Elevated operating expenses, possible TBV dilution from acquisitions, and execution risk around the Bremer merger further threaten capital returns, while lower SOFR and FFR could continue to compress net interest income.