ONB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Old National Bancorp is viewed favorably because its sticky, low-cost deposit franchise and high share of floating-rate loans support durable net interest margin expansion, with a 1.71% deposit cost in 2Q and 56% floating/variable-rate loans helping offset rate volatility. Strong organic growth, a record commercial pipeline, and expanding scale across larger MSAs underpin projected 2026E / 2027E / 2028E operating EPS of $2.61 / $2.90 / $3.20, while core fee income and prudent expense control should preserve positive operating leverage. The outlook is further strengthened by benign credit trends, with NPAs down to 0.92% of loans and substantial buybacks expected to enhance ROTCE and TBV growth above peers.

Old National Bancorp is viewed negatively because its earnings power appears vulnerable to margin compression, with a recent NIM decline and management citing lower SOFR and sub-debt as headwinds, while fee strength looks less durable because the offset came from an elevated “other line” item. Although the $5.6 billion commercial pipeline and $50.8 billion loan book support loan growth, core deposits are expected to lag and rely on $2.3 billion of securities cash flows, leaving funding and execution risk if deposit gathering weakens. Credit, regulatory, and integration risks remain important, especially with CRE at 44% of loans and 254% of total capital, so any macro slowdown could lift losses, expenses, and pressure returns.