ODD Stock Forecast & Price Target

ODDITY Tech is supported by a resilient underlying brand portfolio and a business model that continues to show attractive unit economics even amid a temporary CPA disruption. Management’s 25%-30% revenue decline outlook for 2Q26 and $8mm-$10mm adjusted EBITDA guidance point to near-term pressure, but the 28% sequential improvement in IL MAKIAGE CPA in May suggests acquisition efficiency is beginning to normalize, while repeat purchasing remains resilient. Beyond the core turnaround, METHODIQ is off to a strong start with $25M expected revenue this year, and ODD Labs’ new molecules and cost actions provide additional growth and margin support as investors look toward positive Adjusted EBITDA for FY26.

ODDITY Tech is viewed negatively because a sudden algorithm change at a major ad partner more than doubled customer acquisition costs, pushed ads into lower-quality auctions, and drove 1Q26 net revenues down 26% year over year to $197.9 million while adjusted EBITDA fell to $(7.0) million. Management still expects FY26 adjusted EBITDA to be positive, but it gave no top-line guidance and 2Q26 revenue is expected to fall 25% to 30% year over year with EBITDA of only $8 million to $10 million, underscoring weak visibility into recovery timing. With 98% of revenue coming from Online DTC and first orders down 50% year over year, the business remains highly exposed to advertising efficiency and repeat-purchase weakness, limiting confidence in a sustained rebound.