ODD Stock Forecast & Price Target

ODDITY Tech is attractive because its core brands remain resilient even as the company works through a temporary CPA dislocation, with management describing the issue as technical and unit economics preserved by a shift to a standard purchase model. The 28% sequential improvement in IL MAKIAGE CPA in May suggests acquisition efficiency is beginning to normalize, while the largest advertising partner could still restore 40% to 60% of lost efficiency, supporting a recovery path into 2026. METHODIQ adds another growth lever, expected to generate $25M in revenue this year, and ODD Labs’ new molecules and cost actions bolster the case for positive Adjusted EBITDA in FY26 despite 2Q26 pressure.

ODDITY Tech is facing a deteriorating core growth profile because algorithm changes at its largest ad partner have pushed IL MAKIAGE ads into lower-quality auctions, roughly doubling customer acquisition costs and cutting 1Q26 revenue 26% year over year. Management’s lack of top-line guidance for FY26 underscores limited visibility into recovery, while guidance for 2Q26 revenue down 25%-30% and adjusted EBITDA of $8 million-$10 million implies margins remain pressured despite a 69.7% gross margin in 1Q26. The bear case also points to execution and product risks, with expected FY26 revenue of $623 million and only $6.6 million of adjusted EBITDA versus prior estimates, suggesting the business may need to shift model while buybacks do not offset the fundamental deterioration.