Mohawk Industries (MHK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mohawk Industries is viewed positively because 1Q26 results came in ahead of expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.90 versus the Street’s $1.81 and above the company’s $1.75-$1.85 guide, while revenue rose 8% reported to $2,729 million and adjusted EBIT margin held at 5.5%. The outlook is further supported by improving mix and productivity in Global Ceramic and Flooring North America, where margins expanded despite higher input costs, and by the resilience of commercial demand relative to weak residential end markets. Balance sheet strength also underpins the thesis, as leverage has hovered around 1x since 2021, free cash flow has been strong, and share repurchases remain modest at $64 million, leaving room for more aggressive capital returns.

Mohawk Industries is facing a negative fundamental setup as revenue growth is expected to decelerate meaningfully while housing demand weakens and stagnant repair and remodel spending pressures volumes. Margin risk is also elevated, with CY’26E EBITDA of $1.12BN and valuation at 5.8x EV/EBITDA reflecting weaker profitability amid increased competition in Global Ceramic and LVT, plus ongoing price/mix headwinds and broader cost inflation. Management’s 2Q26 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.50-$2.60, versus the Street at $2.72, points to an 8% year-over-year decline, and higher raw material costs, especially in 2H26, could further squeeze earnings despite price increases.