MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MGM Resorts International is attractive because it controls the premier Las Vegas Strip footprint with 37,000 guest rooms and suites, about one fourth of market units, and its Strip assets contributed approximately 56% of total EBITDAR in 2025, giving the company outsized leverage to a sustainable Vegas inflection as group and convention demand, record Q1 convention ADRs, and easier comps support improvement. Its earnings base is also diversified by a best-in-class regional portfolio that represented a low-20s share of 2025 EBITDAR and by MGM China, which contributed 23% of total EBITDAR in 2025, while the Q1 print showed headline Adj. Property EBITDAR of about $1.3B on net revenues of $4.45B and only temporary pressure from insurance one-timers, suggesting the core business remains resilient despite near-term noise. The outlook is further reinforced by growing optionality from US sports and i-gaming, which are already a high-single-digit percentage of revenue, plus the company’s 56%-owned Macau platform and the expected Japan resort opening in 2030, all of which support long-term multiple expansion from a valuation that appears compressed relative to MGM’s asset quality and historical mix.

MGM Resorts International is facing a weakening fundamental backdrop because its core Las Vegas franchise, which generated about 56% of 2025 EBITDAR, is contending with continued softness, a competitive and promotional environment, and rising pressure to keep online market share at an increasingly expensive cost. Although management points to group and convention demand, a completed MGM Grand renovation, and more normalized leisure comps, the company still posted Vegas 1Q EBITDAR of $749m, down 8% year over year, while regional EBITDAR fell 7% and MGM China EBITDAR slipped 4% even as revenues improved, highlighting that margin pressure and mixed operating trends remain. At the same time, the company faces additional structural drags from a higher MGM China branding fee rising from 1.75% to 3.5%, ongoing investment needs of $685-$735M in 2026 plus $350-$400M for MGM Osaka, and a balance sheet with about $6.4B of long-term debt against roughly $2.1B of cash, limiting flexibility if operating conditions stay soft.