MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MGM Resorts International has demonstrated a robust financial performance with a 20% year-over-year increase in EBITDAR, accompanied by a 17% rise in net revenues and a 60 basis points improvement in margins. Strong bookings for 2026, with group room nights pacing up 12% and visitation during the Golden Week holiday period increasing by 11%, indicate a positive outlook for the company's operations on the Las Vegas Strip. Additionally, the post-COVID recovery in Macau and the potential $10 billion integrated resort opportunity in Osaka present significant long-term growth catalysts for MGM's portfolio.

MGM Resorts International reported a -2% EBITDAR miss attributed to weaknesses in the Las Vegas Strip, compounded by a significant -7% year-over-year decline in net revenues, totaling $147 million, primarily driven by poor performance in non-luxury properties. Key contributors to the EBITDA weakness included a $14 million decline in business interruption proceeds, a $13 million increase in non-cash insurance accruals, and a $78 million drop in average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy, which adversely affected food and beverage revenues. Management's subdued outlook for the Las Vegas market into the second half of 2025, along with lowered EBITDAR expectations for 2025 and 2026, suggests ongoing challenges in the operating environment, particularly for lower-end properties.