MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MGM Resorts International has demonstrated a solid financial performance, with EBITDAR showing an increase of +31% year-over-year alongside net revenue growth of +21% and an improvement in margins of 190 basis points. The company also reported strong bookings for 2026, with group room nights pacing up by +12% and an overall positive trend in visitation during key periods, such as the Golden Week holiday, where total win rose by +20%. Additionally, MGM's digital revenues grew by 35%, indicating robust organic growth and brand expansion, which complements the company's resilience in the high-end market while navigating challenges in the lower-end segments.

MGM Resorts International reported a -2% EBITDAR miss primarily due to weakness on the Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for approximately 59% of total EBITDAR, while the company’s regional operations showed flat performance year-over-year. Key contributors to the EBITDA decline included a $14 million reduction in business interruption proceeds, a $25 million impact from room renovations at MGM Grand, and a significant decrease in average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy, leading to a $78 million reduction in revenues. Additionally, the company's adjusted management noted continued operational challenges, particularly in the luxury segment during midweek periods, which compounds the negative outlook for 2025 and 2026 EBITDAR estimates.