Manulife Financial (MFC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Manulife Financial is expected to see modest EPS growth in 2026 due to lower growth in its Global Wealth and Asset Management segment, but a stronger 13% growth in 2027. The company has a target price of $56 based on a P/BV multiple of 1.85x on its BVPS estimate at the end of 2027, and its Core ROE of 16.5% showed a 90bps year-over-year increase. However, expenses impacted the converted-to-US-dollar results, resulting in a drop in price target to $58 from $59. The company is expected to see a decline in earnings in Total U.S. Insurance and non-insurance but analysts are expecting better results in 2027.

Manulife Financial is facing multiple challenges including persistent outflows from its global asset and wealth management segment, market impacts slightly higher than disclosed sensitivities, and weaker earnings quality. Although the company maintains a strong ROE target for 2027, its near-term outlook is negatively impacted by unexpected losses in its P&C Insurance division, costs related to the eMPF transition, and abnormally high disability claims in Canada. The company also has very modest exposure to private credit, but with significant risk mitigants. Its Asia segment, which is key to achieving its ROE target, is facing macro uncertainty. Overall, we believe Manulife's fundamental outlook is negative due to these challenges and potential risks such as higher claims frequency, unfavorable investment performance, and regulatory changes.