Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex is supported by a constructive methanol price backdrop, as CMA raised 2026/27/28 forecasts for Asia and North America amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, keeping prices elevated even as normalization is expected later. The company’s fundamentals also improved after the June 2025 OCI Global acquisition, which added 1.76 million MT/year of methanol capacity and 340,000 MT/year of ammonia capacity in Texas, lifting North American production to over 60% and strengthening access to advantaged natural gas feedstock. With Q1/26 Adjusted EBITDA of $220 million, realized methanol pricing above expectations, and estimated 2026 EBITDA of $1.595 billion, it appears positioned for strong FCF, lower leverage, and potential buybacks in 2026.

Methanex is facing a weak fundamental setup because it is indefinitely idling its 860,000 MT/year Titan facility in Trinidad and Tobago after failing to secure a natural gas contract before the current agreement expires in Q3/26, removing a source that management says is not contributing to Adjusted EBITDA or Free Cash Flow. At the same time, Asia pricing is deteriorating, with NE Asia spot prices down 14% M/M and Methanex cutting Asia Pacific and China reference prices to $620/MT and $525/MT, while only the North American reference price stayed at $1,480/MT and Europe rose to €915/MT. Although 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts were raised to $1,692 million and $1,504 million, the stock remains exposed to volatile methanol pricing, feedstock risk, and the possibility that New Zealand and Trinidad operations, which contribute less than 5% of EBITDA, are mothballed.