Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex is benefiting from a stronger methanol pricing backdrop, as CMA raised 2026/27/28 Asia and North America forecasts and still expects elevated prices through the normalization phase, supporting higher realizations across the company’s global sales base. The June 2025 ~$2 billion OCI Global acquisition added 1.76 million MT/year of methanol capacity and 340,000 MT/year of ammonia capacity in Texas, lifting production by over 20% and improving exposure to attractive North American gas economics. With Q1/26 Adjusted EBITDA of $220 million, estimated 2026 EBITDA of $1.595 billion, and leverage expected to fall to about 2.5x by Q2, the company appears positioned for strong free cash flow, debt reduction, and possible share repurchases.

Methanex is facing a weak fundamental setup because two production assets with meaningful operating risk—Trinidad’s Titan facility at 860,000 MT/year and the remaining New Zealand plant—may be idled by Q3/26 and end-2026, while together they contribute less than 5% of EBITDA. The company remains highly sensitive to methanol pricing, with every $50/MT move estimated to change run-rate Adjusted EBITDA by about $375 million to $425 million, yet its realized price is viewed as having peaked in Q2/26 and spot prices have already eased from recent highs. Although 2026 production guidance stays at 9.3 million MT, the outlook is pressured by feedstock uncertainty, geopolitical supply disruptions, and a downside case implying value erosion and elevated debt if weak pricing persists.