MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB is projecting significant revenue growth, with a FactSet consensus of $593.8 million reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by the addition of 5,000 customers in the first half of 2026. The company has demonstrated strong cloud consumption growth and improved traction in its customer base, particularly among higher-spending clients, suggesting a solid foundation for future revenue acceleration. With continued enhancements to its go-to-market strategies and advancements in tooling for database migrations, MongoDB is well-positioned for ongoing growth in the upcoming quarters.

The financial outlook for MongoDB presents concerning trends, particularly with non-Atlas revenue, which is projected to decline by low to mid-single digits year-over-year, reflecting ongoing headwinds in a challenging market. Additionally, estimates indicate that Atlas new annual recurring revenue (ARR) is expected to decrease over 50% year-over-year, while enterprise advanced (EA) ARR may decline by over 70%, signaling potential issues in customer retention and revenue diversification. Despite slight improvements in total revenue from MongoDB Atlas, the significant drop in non-Atlas revenue and ARR metrics raises doubts about the company's overall growth sustainability and ability to maintain its competitive edge in the market.