Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Eli Lilly is viewed positively because its incretin franchise continues to drive outsized revenue growth, with Zepbound and Mounjaro showing strong prescription gains, ~55% international Mounjaro share, and 2026 revenue estimates of about $89.2bn versus guidance of $85bn-$87bn. The outlook is further supported by Bridge-related pricing concerns appearing limited, as the program represents only about 10% of U.S. TRx and is offset by meaningful new-start volume, while Foundayo adds an emerging growth vector with improving launch trends. Longer term, the company’s patent protection through 2035+, manufacturing lead, and a pipeline that includes CNS and oncology catalysts support above-average sales and EPS growth and sustain confidence in multiple expansion.

Eli Lilly is facing a weakening fundamental setup as obesity growth becomes increasingly dependent on price concessions, with the Medicare Bridge program and CVS formulary reinstatement pressuring Zepbound pricing while still leaving Oral Wegovy with about 75% share and faster script momentum. 3Q26 commentary also points to a softer Foundayo launch, as lower promotional doses were needed to stimulate demand and the company now models Zepbound pricing down 18% year over year in the US, with global portfolio pricing remaining a mid-teens headwind for FY26. Beyond obesity, Verzenio missed expectations at RBCe $1.44bn versus consensus $1.52bn on down 2% TRx and ongoing pricing pressure, reinforcing concerns that operating margins, EPS growth, and valuation could all deteriorate if competition and payor pressure intensify.