HNGE Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hinge Health Inc. has demonstrated robust financial performance, achieving 53.3% revenue growth alongside a 23-point year-over-year expansion in adjusted operating margins. The company anticipates a significant increase in client counts for 4Q25, which correlates with an expected adjusted operating income margin of approximately 22.4%, marking a notable improvement. With a current penetration rate of eligible users at around 3.5%, markedly below the 9% rate of traditional physical therapy, Hinge Health is well-positioned for future growth, especially as it continues to innovate with new programming and enhance its yield through strategic tools like Hinge Connect.

Hinge Health has demonstrated a concerning trend in its financial metrics, highlighted by a sharp decrease in adjusted R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue, plummeting from 23.7% in 3Q24 to 14.5% in 3Q25, indicating potential challenges in innovation and product development. Furthermore, the company's guidance of mid-teens EBIT margins for the latter half of 2025, coupled with projected margins of 14.6% and 16.2% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, raises red flags regarding profitability and operational efficiency. Additionally, the anticipated decline in membership alongside the seasonal dip in sales and marketing effectiveness casts further doubt on the company's ability to maintain growth momentum in the near term.