HEICO (HEI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Heico is supported by a durable aftermarket franchise, with more than 19,500 FAA-PMA approvals and PMA parts sold at a roughly 30% to 40% discount to OEM alternatives, which should keep driving share gains as airlines focus on cost cutting and supply-chain constraints persist. Its ETG segment is inflecting meaningfully, with revenue up 34.3% in F2Q26 and 35.9% in F3Q26, record F3Q26 revenue of $484M, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 31.5% as defense and space demand strengthened. The outlook is further reinforced by acquisitive capital deployment, including $1.1B of fiscal 2026 acquisitions, net debt to EBITDA improving to 1.57x, and $816M of operating cash flow in 9M FY26, leaving ample room for continued M&A-driven growth.

Heico is exposed to a less favorable setup than its premium valuation implies, because its Flight Support Group has already benefited from unusually strong post-pandemic aftermarket conditions and future margin expansion could stall if global aviation normalizes or weakens. It also carries execution and mix risk in the Electronic Technologies Group, where recent margin strength may not be sustainable despite favorable defense spending trends. With 58% of consolidated sales tied to commercial aviation, goodwill and intangibles at 60% of total assets at FYE 2025, and roughly 107 acquisitions since 1990, the company faces downside from OEM retaliation, integration risk, and potential multiple compression.