Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carlyle Group's total assets under management (AUM) reached $474.1 billion at the end of September 2025, illustrating robust growth across its three core business segments. The firm possesses significant fee-earning AUM of $332.0 billion, indicating a strong revenue-generating capacity from its global private equity, global credit, and investment solutions offerings. Furthermore, Carlyle's extensive global reach, with 29 offices across five continents and a diverse client base of over 3,100 active investors from 87 countries, enhances its competitive advantage in the alternative asset management space.

Carlyle Group's financial outlook is negatively impacted by declining production metrics, notably at the Oksut operation, which has been exacerbated by stream-impacted output at the Mount Milligan project that is currently selling at a 30% discount to spot prices. The company's forecast for gold equivalent production has seen a significant decline since 2022, with recovery projected only after 2028, relying in part on molybdenum contributions. Furthermore, Mount Milligan, which constitutes approximately 50% of the company's net asset value (NAV) and about 70% of its production through the end of 2027, is expected to miss initial production guidance substantially, forecasting results approximately 25% lower than peers.