Carrier Global (CARR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carrier Global Corp is poised for a positive outlook as it anticipates significant growth in 40% of its portfolio, particularly in the aftermarket and CHVAC segments, which are projected to expand at a double-digit percentage rate. The company is also planning to implement a price increase of up to five percent in the Americas residential market, demonstrating its confidence in maintaining profitability despite current economic pressures. Furthermore, Carrier's potential for margin expansion in 2026, coupled with anticipated recoveries in the European heat pump market and strong orders supporting its growth trajectory, positions the company favorably for future financial performance.

Carrier Global Corporation has faced ongoing challenges in its residential HVAC segment, which constitutes approximately 50% of its revenues, leading to a negative preannouncement for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) that are projected to be $0.36, approximately 12% below prior guidance. The company anticipates that full-year 2025 EPS will be $2.60, reflecting a downward revision of $0.05 attributed to lower-than-expected residential volume. Additionally, peers in the residential HVAC market, such as Trane and Lennox, have also reported similar headwinds, suggesting broader industry challenges that may further impact Carrier’s performance going forward.