Bristol-Myers (BMY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bristol-Myers Squibb's positive outlook is significantly supported by an upward revision in long-term sales projections for its key product, Cobenfy, now expected to reach $5.7 billion by 2030, reflecting a 36% increase from previous estimates. Furthermore, enhancements in sales forecasts for milvexian, which are projected to rise by 26% to $3.9 billion, indicate a strengthening pipeline bolstered by favorable trial results. Additionally, the firm’s substantial potential for peak sales of Cobenfy exceeding $10 billion, alongside increased confidence in product performance, showcases robust growth opportunities within its immuno-oncology and broader therapeutic asset portfolio.

Bristol-Myers Squibb's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to constrained earnings per share (EPS) growth projected through 2029 and significant dependence on the U.S. market, which accounts for nearly 70% of total sales. The company's downside case presents a potential -5% terminal value growth rate along with a -20% reduction in base business, aggravating concerns about the sustainability of key franchises and overall competitive positioning. Furthermore, risks associated with loss of exclusivity on high-margin products and competitive dynamics in the hematology and oncology markets add further pressure to margins and could hinder recovery in key therapeutic areas.