Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blue Bird Corp has demonstrated strong financial performance, with bus revenue for FY4Q25 reaching approximately $384 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase driven by higher deliveries and average selling prices (ASPs). The company reported EBITDA margins of around 17%, showing substantial gains of 190 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 480 basis points year-over-year, supported by a revenue increase of approximately $409 million. Furthermore, the expected long-term growth in sales of alternative-powered buses, alongside a recovery in the legacy school bus market, positions Blue Bird for enhanced revenue, margin expansion, and overall financial health in the coming years.

The financial outlook for Blue Bird Corp is negatively impacted by a significant decline in backlog units, which were down approximately 37% year-over-year, indicating waning demand in the school bus market. Additionally, projected EBITDA margins are expected to contract from around 13.6% in FY2024 to the mid- to high-single-digit range by FY2026, reflecting challenges in sustaining profitability amidst increased competition and rising labor costs. Moreover, factors such as potential difficulties in accessing capital, reliance on key suppliers, and pressures from public-sector budgets underscore the company’s vulnerability to sales and earnings shortfalls moving forward.