Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blue Bird Corp demonstrated robust financial performance in FY4Q25, with bus revenue reaching approximately $384 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19% and underpinned by higher deliveries and average selling prices (ASPs). The company's EBITDA margins showed significant improvement, expanding by 190 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 480 basis points year-over-year to approximately 17%, driven by strong top-line growth and effective cost management strategies. The positive outlook is further supported by expectations of high-single-digit revenue growth in the near term, fueled by the increasing sales of alternative-powered and higher-priced buses, which will enhance margins and free cash flow in the coming years.

Blue Bird Corp is experiencing a concerning decline in backlog units, down approximately 37% year-over-year, which raises significant demand uncertainties. The company’s projected EBITDA margins are expected to contract from around 13.6% in fiscal year 2024 to a mid- to high-single-digit range by fiscal year 2026, coupled with a downward adjustment to long-term margin targets. Additionally, various competitive pressures, including increased competition in electric buses, potential declines in public-sector budgets, and challenges in production and financing, pose substantial risks to Blue Bird's sales and earnings outlook.