APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc. demonstrated robust financial growth, with total revenues increasing by 11.9% year-over-year, reflecting strong enrollment trends across its segments. Notably, on-ground healthcare enrollments rose 12.7% to 7,100, and the Rasmussen University segment saw an overall enrollment increase of 8.9% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. Additionally, segment EBITDA for the company grew by 19.1% to $26.2 million, supported by strategic tuition increases and steady expansion in net course registrations, which rose 8.1% to 100,000 in the third quarter.

American Public Education Inc. is facing a challenging financial outlook as management projects a significant decline in net course registrations for the fourth quarter, estimating a drop of 23% to 33% year-over-year, largely attributed to the impact of a government shutdown and the temporary suspension of the TA program. The revised revenue guidance indicates expected fourth-quarter revenue of $151.8 million, representing a 7.5% decline compared to the previous year, which falls short of analyst expectations. Additionally, the anticipated adjusted EBITDA of $20.3 million for the fourth quarter, down 35.5% year-over-year, further reinforces concerns regarding the company's profitability and overall financial performance amidst uncertainties affecting enrollment and revenue generation.