Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aldeyra Therapeutics is viewed positively because its lead asset, reproxalap, has repeatedly shown compelling late-stage activity in dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis, with nine adequate and well-controlled clinical trials and five meeting all multiplicity-controlled primary endpoints. The company’s appeal is strengthened by a large unmet-need backdrop, including more than 15M diagnosed dry eye patients and more than 30M diagnosed allergic conjunctivitis patients in the US, alongside a novel RASP-scavenging mechanism that may support broader future development. Although regulatory risk remains elevated after multiple CRLs, the planned Formal Dispute Resolution Request to the FDA’s Office of New Drugs suggests a credible path to challenge the prior conclusions and preserve upside from a differentiated pipeline.

Aldeyra Therapeutics is viewed negatively because its lead asset, reproxalap, has repeatedly failed to secure regulatory approval, culminating in another CRL citing lack of substantial evidence of efficacy, inconsistent study results, and an overall conclusion that the clinical evidence does not support effectiveness. The company’s late-stage path has been undermined by methodological concerns, baseline score imbalances, and the FDA’s request for additional field trial documentation in December 2025, which extended uncertainty rather than de-risking the program. Given that the investment case depends heavily on developmental candidates reaching commercial scale while the company must also secure capital resources and continue program development, the repeated setbacks materially weaken both the growth outlook and the valuation framework.