AIG (AIG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American International Gr is positioned favorably because its core fixed income portfolio should continue to benefit from higher new money yields, while private equity results are expected to normalize and improve from 2Q results, supporting more stable investment income. Its underwriting franchise remains a key strength, with management reaffirming a 2027 core operating ROE target of 10% to 13%, a GI expense ratio below 30% by end of 2027, global personal insurance combined ratio of 94%, and a plan to generate $3B of capital from insurance subsidiaries through 2027, all while maintaining historically strong combined ratios in the high 80s to low 90s and reporting 9.4% ROE in 2Q26. Even with more competitive pricing and a more line-specific growth backdrop, the company’s selectivity, reserve confidence, capital generation, and continued repurchases and dividends suggest durable earnings power, a healthier balance sheet, and upside from the remaining Corebridge stake and disciplined re-leveraging of the underwriting engine.

American International Gr is facing a negative fundamental outlook because its downside case hinges on poor underwriting results at Convex and the recently acquired EG business, which could cap growth, weaken underwriting margins, and slow capital returns if buybacks remain muted in a more competitive environment. While 2Q26 showed some improvement in North America Commercial and Global Personal, the gains were uneven and came with pressure from mix shifts into casualty, property rate pressure, and a deliberate 9 percentage point reduction in Lexington Property retention, signaling management is sacrificing volume to defend profitability. Even with expected 2026 EPS of $8.14 and 2027 EPS of $8.85, the model already assumes achievement of 2027 targets, so any shortfall in underwriting, catastrophe trends, or macro growth could leave the shares vulnerable to retracing toward lower book-value multiples.