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  4. Will Trump declare an election emergency?
Politics

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

Before Jan 1, 202733¢33%
Before Nov 4, 202613¢13%
$612,030.72 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFederal Register, the President of the United States, the White House
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$612,030.72
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before Nov 4, 2026
    Volume$574,758.46
    Price13¢
    +30.00% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$37,272.26
    Price33¢
    +3.13% today

Trade No contracts

  • Before Nov 4, 2026
    Volume$574,758.46
    Price89¢
    -3.33% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$37,272.26
    Price70¢
    -1.47% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will Trump declare an election emergency?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027, with an estimated probability of 33% and a Yes contract price of $0.33. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will Trump declare an election emergency? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will Trump declare an election emergency?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Register, the President of the United States, the White House as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will Trump declare an election emergency? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Will Trump declare an election emergency?

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Will Trump declare an election emergency?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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