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  4. Will the Clarity Act become law?
Politics

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 202822¢22%
Before Oct 1, 202721¢21%
Before Jul 1, 202719¢19%
$8,370,932.92 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law; The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law; Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above. Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion: The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); A bill that passes the House but not the Senate; An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceLibrary of Congress, White House
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$8,370,932.92
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$4,902,018.60
    Price5.7¢
    -6.67% today
  • Before Nov 1, 2026
    Volume$1,426,493.76
    Price1¢
    0.00% today
  • Before Dec 1, 2026
    Volume$1,035,641.58
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$327,610.46
    Price21¢
    +5.00% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$270,743.92
    Price22¢
    +10.00% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$213,916.94
    Price14¢
    -8.33% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$194,507.66
    Price18¢
    +18.75% today
  • Before Feb 1, 2027
    Volume$0.00
    Price—
    — today
  • Before Oct 1, 2026Closed

Trade No contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$4,902,018.60
    Price94.5¢
    +0.43% today
  • Before Nov 1, 2026
    Volume$1,426,493.76
    Price100¢
    +9,800.00% today
  • Before Dec 1, 2026
    Volume$1,035,641.58
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$327,610.46
    Price82¢
    -1.25% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$270,743.92
    Price80¢
    -2.50% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$213,916.94
    Price91¢
    +1.14% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$194,507.66
    Price86¢
    -3.57% today
  • Before Feb 1, 2027
    Volume$0.00
    Price—
    — today
  • Before Oct 1, 2026Closed

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will the Clarity Act become law?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2028, with an estimated probability of 22% and a Yes contract price of $0.22. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will the Clarity Act become law? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will the Clarity Act become law?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Library of Congress, White House as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Will the Clarity Act become law?

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Will the Clarity Act become law?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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