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  4. Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
Politics

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

Before 202828¢28%
Before 20273¢3%
$513,638.08 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceLibrary of Congress, White House
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$513,638.08
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before 2027
    Volume$511,302.76
    Price5.4¢
    -25.00% today
  • Before 2028
    Volume$2,335.32
    Price28¢
    +180.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Before 2027
    Volume$511,302.76
    Price97¢
    +1.04% today
  • Before 2028
    Volume$2,335.32
    Price77¢
    -20.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?. The leading outcome is Before 2028, with an estimated probability of 28% and a Yes contract price of $0.28. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

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Each event contract represents an outcome for Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Library of Congress, White House as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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