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  4. Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?
Midterms

Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

Yes62¢62%
No38¢38%
$6,456.20 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Steve Hilton's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 California governor election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will be used to determine relative performance. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceCalifornia Secretary of State, Real Clear Polling
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$6,456.20
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$6,456.20
    Price62¢
    +10.71% today
  • No
    Volume$6,456.20
    Price47¢
    -13.64% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?. The outcome is Yes, with an estimated probability of 62% and a Yes contract price of $0.62. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls? is Nov 10, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using California Secretary of State, Real Clear Polling as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

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Will Steve Hilton outperform the polls?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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