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Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

Before Jan 1, 202714¢14%
Before Oct 1, 20261¢1%
$43,619.68 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that Anthropic developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with Anthropic on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. Work by an independent Claude user does NOT count, even if Anthropic publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC News, Anthropic, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$43,619.68
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
$43.62K15¢+1,300.00%
Before Oct 1, 2026Closed

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
$43.62K86¢+8,500.00%
Before Oct 1, 2026Closed

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027, with an estimated probability of 14% and a Yes contract price of $0.15. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC News, Anthropic, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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