Skip to main
  2. Prediction Markets
  3. Economics
  4. Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Reserve President Rejected15¢15%
Presser Skipped12¢12%
Trimmed Mean Emphasized11¢11%
$88,919.92 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Clarification 9/28/26: “Dot Plot Omitted” refers to a published Summary of Economic Projections omitting individual participants’ federal funds rate projections as a whole. The absence of a projection from one or more participants does not qualify if other participants’ individual projections are published. Those projections count regardless of their presentation format or whether the term “dot plot” is used.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Dot Plot Omitted
    Volume$35,885.30
    Price14¢
    -50.00% today
  • Presser Skipped
    Volume$31,253.66
    Price10¢
    +50.00% today
  • Reserve President Rejected
    Volume$14,334.30
    Price15¢
    +7.14% today
  • Trimmed Mean Emphasized
    Volume$7,078.66
    Price18¢
    -26.67% today
  • Reserve President Removed
    Volume$368.00
    Price8¢
    -40.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Dot Plot Omitted
    Volume$35,885.30
    Price91¢
    +6.82% today
  • Presser Skipped
    Volume$31,253.66
    Price93¢
    -4.35% today
  • Reserve President Rejected
    Volume$14,334.30
    Price86¢
    -1.16% today
  • Trimmed Mean Emphasized
    Volume$7,078.66
    Price89¢
    +4.71% today
  • Reserve President Removed
    Volume$368.00
    Price98¢
    +2.11% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?. The leading outcome is Reserve President Rejected, with an estimated probability of 15% and a Yes contract price of $0.15. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? is Jan 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, ABC News Australia, Axios, BBC, Bloomberg News, CBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, South China Morning Post, The Guardian, The Information, The New York Times, The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

    Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.

  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

Related events

SOFR for October 23, 2026
| $13,147.06 Vol.
3.91% or Above
Exactly 3.90%
3.85% or Below
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
| $892,472.32 Vol.
Above 4.00%
Above 5.25%
Above 4.50%
October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
| $56,495.62 Vol.
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Rate: No change, Dissents: 0
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?
| $43,524.28 Vol.
2
0
1
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
| $29,924,184.74 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Cut 25bps
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?
| $54,185.60 Vol.
Beth Hammack
Lorie Logan
Neel Kashkari
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
| $7,179.74 Vol.
Above 4.0%
Above 4.1%
Above 4.2%
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
| $870,873.76 Vol.
Above 3.75%
Above 4.00%
Above 4.25%
Will the Fed publish a dot plot in December?
| $68.98 Vol.
In December 2026
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
| $2,679,441.72 Vol.
Hike 25bps
Fed maintains rate
Hike >25bps
Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026
| $41,222.42 Vol.
Above $6.8 trillion
Above $7.0 trillion
Above $6.9 trillion
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
| $373,932.54 Vol.
Before Jan 1, 2027
Total Fed dissents in 2026
| $2,579.40 Vol.
Exactly 9
Exactly 7
Exactly 10
Fed rate cut before 2027?
| $3,207,868.00 Vol.
Cuts
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
| $22,016,219.26 Vol.
Exactly 0 cuts
Exactly 1 cut
Exactly 2 cuts
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
$238,896.60 Vol.
Exactly 2
Exactly 1
Exactly 3
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
| $1,028,497.22 Vol.
0 cuts
3 cuts
4 cuts
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
| $1,365,587.26 Vol.
In 2026
Will rates hit zero in 2026?
| $127,703.14 Vol.
In 2026
Number of rate hikes in 2026?
$611,135.16 Vol.
Exactly 2
Exactly 1
Exactly 3
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
| $131,853.10 Vol.
Above 3.75%
Above 4.00%
Above 4.25%
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
| $118,929.38 Vol.
Above 4.50%
Above 4.25%
Above 4.75%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
| $573,308.36 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Cut 25bps
Fed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
| $112,795.20 Vol.
Above 4.75%
Above 5.00%
Above 5.50%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
| $125,822.98 Vol.
Hike 25bps
Fed maintains rate
Cut 25bps
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
| $350,967.90 Vol.
Above 4.00%
Above 5.50%
Above 3.50%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
| $126,902.80 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Cut 25bps
Fed funds rate after Jun 2027 meeting?
| $67,596.80 Vol.
Above 2.75%
Above 4.50%
Above 4.75%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
| $91,571.08 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Cut >25bps
Fed funds rate after Jul 2027 meeting?
| $38.00 Vol.
Above 1.00%
Above 2.75%
Above 4.50%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
| $360,488.92 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Cut >25bps
Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting?
| $21,260.00 Vol.
Above 4.00%
Above 4.50%
Above 3.25%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
| $108,096.32 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bps
Hike >25bps
Fed funds rate after Oct 2027 meeting?
| $49,015.22 Vol.
Above 0.00%
Above 4.75%
Above 4.50%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
| $330,006.12 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Cut 25bps
Hike 25bps
Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?
| $173,828.52 Vol.
Above 4.00%
Above 4.25%
Above 5.50%
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
| $266,140.22 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Cut 25bps
Hike 25bps
Total Fed dissents in 2027
| $100.08 Vol.
13+
Exactly 2
Exactly 7
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
| $257,013.70 Vol.
Above 4.25%
Above 4.50%
Above 5.50%
Fed funds rate after Jan 2028 meeting?
| $432.00 Vol.
Above 0.25%
Above 3.50%
Above 3.25%
Fed decision in Jan 2028?
| $15,783.72 Vol.
Fed maintains rate
Hike >25bps
Cut 25bps
Fed funds rate at end of 2028
| $8,225.16 Vol.
Above 3.00%
Above 3.75%
Above 4.00%
Next Fed rate hike?
$305,808.84 Vol.
Before July 2028
Before July 2027
Before 2027
Next Fed rate cut?
$6,512.04 Vol.
Before July 2028
Before 2028
Before July 2027
Fed funds rate at end of 2029
| $7,328.44 Vol.
Above 2.50%
Above 3.25%
Above 3.75%
Fed funds rate at end of 2030
| $8,490.88 Vol.
Above 4.25%
Above 4.00%
Above 3.75%
Fed funds rate at end of 2031
| $9,129.16 Vol.
Above 2.75%
Above 3.50%
Above 4.00%
Fed funds rate at end of 2032
| $4,404.80 Vol.
Above 3.25%
Above 1.00%
Above 4.00%
Fed funds rate at end of 2033
| $8,924.96 Vol.
Above 3.50%
Above 3.00%
Above 2.75%
Fed funds rate at end of 2034
| $4,332.60 Vol.
Above 3.00%
Above 3.50%
Above 3.25%
Fed funds rate at end of 2035
| $4,977.08 Vol.
Above 2.50%
Above 1.50%
Above 5.75%
Fed funds rate at end of 2036
| $12,970.00 Vol.
Above 3.25%
Above 4.25%
Above 4.50%

Live odds on Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Track live odds and trade event contracts inside a multi-asset portfolio on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for your prediction market strategies.

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Order
Odds
Max payoutBefore fees
$0.00

Prediction Markets Glossary

Learn more

Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.


Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

© Copyright 2026 Public Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Market data powered by Xignite.

All investments involve the risk of loss and the past performance of a security or a financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. You should consult your legal, tax, or financial advisors before making any financial decisions. This material is not intended as a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to purchase or sell securities, open a brokerage account, or engage in any investment strategy.

Stocks, ETFs, Options, Bonds.
Self-directed brokerage accounts and brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options, and Bonds, except for treasury securities offered through Jiko Securities, Inc., are offered to self-directed customers by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. (“Public Investing”), a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA & SIPC. Additional information about your broker can be found by clicking here. Public Investing is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public Holdings”). This is not an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or open a brokerage account in any jurisdiction where Public Investing is not registered. Securities products offered by Public Investing are not FDIC insured. Apex Clearing Corporation, our clearing firm, has additional insurance coverage in excess of the regular SIPC limits. Additional information can be found here.

Options.
Certain requirements must be met in order to trade options. Options can be risky and are not suitable for all investors. Options transactions are often complex, and investors can rapidly lose the entire amount of their investment or more in a short period of time. Investors should consider their investment objectives and risks carefully before investing in options. Refer to the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before considering any options transaction. Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request. Tax considerations with options transactions are unique and investors considering options should consult their tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome of each options strategy.

Options Order Flow Rebates.
If you are enrolled in our Options Order Flow Rebate Program, Public Investing will share a percentage of our estimated order flow revenue for each completed options trade as a rebate to help reduce your trading costs. Rebate rates vary monthly from $0.06-$0.18 and depend on your current and prior month’s options trading volume. This rebate will be deducted from your cost to place the trade and will be reflected on your trade confirmation. To learn more, see our Options Rebate Program Terms & Conditions, Order Rebate FAQ and Fee Schedule.

Bonds.
“Bonds” shall refer to corporate debt securities and U.S. government securities offered on the Public platform through a self-directed brokerage account held at Public Investing and custodied at Apex Clearing. For purposes of this section, Bonds exclude treasury securities held in treasury accounts with Jiko Securities, Inc. as explained under the “ Treasury Accounts” section.

Investments in Bonds are subject to various risks including risks related to interest rates, credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. The value of Bonds fluctuate and any investments sold prior to maturity may result in gain or loss of principal. In general, when interest rates go up, Bond prices typically drop, and vice versa. Bonds with higher yields or offered by issuers with lower credit ratings generally carry a higher degree of risk. All fixed income securities are subject to price change and availability, and yield is subject to change. Bond ratings, if provided, are third party opinions on the overall bond's credit worthiness at the time the rating is assigned. Ratings are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell securities, and they do not address the market value of securities or their suitability for investment purposes.

A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The Bond Account’s yield is the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate; therefore a bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased, and your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTW is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. See our Fee Schedule.

Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. You should evaluate each bond before investing in a Bond Account. The bonds in your Bond Account will not be rebalanced and allocations will not be updated, except for Corporate Actions.

Fractional Bonds also carry additional risks including that they are only available on Public and cannot be transferred to other brokerages. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds. See Bond Account Disclosures to learn more.

High-Yield Cash Account.
A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds in your High-Yield Cash Account are automatically deposited into partner banks (“Partner Banks”), where that cash earns interest and is eligible for FDIC insurance. See here for a list of current Partner Banks. Your Annual Percentage Yield is variable and may change at the discretion of the Partner Banks or Public Investing. Apex Clearing and Public Investing receive administrative fees for operating this program, which reduce the amount of interest paid on swept cash. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. Learn more.

Cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency trading, execution and custody services are provided by Zero Hash LLC (“Zero Hash”). Zero Hash is licensed to engage in a virtual currency business by the New York State Department of Financial Services, and is a licensed money transmitter in all other US states and certain US territories. Zero Hash is not a registered broker-dealer or a member of FINRA. Cryptocurrencies are not stocks and your cryptocurrency investments are not FDIC insured or SIPC protected.

Cryptocurrency investing is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrencies offered by Zero Hash are not securities and are not FDIC insured or protected by SIPC. Your cryptocurrency assets are held by Zero Hash, not Public. Your Zero Hash Crypto account is separate from your brokerage account with Public Investing, which holds US-listed stocks and ETFs. Please review the Risk Disclosures before trading.

Treasury Accounts.
Investing services in treasury accounts offering 6 month US Treasury Bills on the Public platform are through Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”), a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA & SIPC. See JSI’s FINRA BrokerCheck and Form CRS for further information. JSI uses funds from your Treasury Account to purchase T-bills in increments of $100 “par value” (the T-bill’s value at maturity). T-bills are purchased at a discount to the par value and the T-bill’s yield represents the difference in price between the “par value” and the “discount price.” Aggregate funds in your Treasury Account in excess of the T-bill purchases will remain in your Treasury Account as cash. The value of T-bills fluctuate and investors may receive more or less than their original investments if sold prior to maturity. T-bills are subject to price change and availability - yield is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investments in T-bills involve a variety of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. As a general rule, the price of a T-bills moves inversely to changes in interest rates. Although T-bills are considered safer than many other financial instruments, you could lose all or a part of your investment. See Jiko U.S. Treasuries Risk Disclosures for further details.

Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value.

Banking services and bank accounts are offered by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. JSI and Jiko Bank are not affiliated with Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public”) or any of its subsidiaries. None of these entities provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should consult your legal, tax, or financial advisors before making any financial decisions. This material is not intended as a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to purchase or sell securities, open a brokerage account, or engage in any investment strategy.

Commission-free trading refers to $0 commissions charged on trades of US listed registered securities placed during the US Markets Regular Trading Hours in self-directed brokerage accounts offered by Public Investing. Keep in mind that other fees such as regulatory fees, Premium subscription fees, commissions on trades during extended trading hours, wire transfer fees, and paper statement fees may apply to your brokerage account. Please see Public’s Investing’s Fee Schedule to learn more.

Fractional shares are illiquid outside of Public and not transferable. For a complete explanation of conditions, restrictions and limitations associated with fractional shares, see our Fractional Share Disclosure to learn more.

Investment Plans. Investment Plans (“Plans”) shown in our marketplace are for informational purposes only and are meant as helpful starting points as you discover, research and create a Plan that meets your specific investing needs. Plans are self-directed purchases of individually-selected assets, which may include stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrency. Plans are not recommendations of a Plan overall or its individual holdings or default allocations. Plans are created using defined, objective criteria based on generally accepted investment theory; they are not based on your needs or risk profile. You are responsible for establishing and maintaining allocations among assets within your Plan. Plans involve continuous investments, regardless of market conditions. Diversification does not eliminate risk. See our Investment Plans Terms and Conditions and Sponsored Content and Conflicts of Interest Disclosure.

Alpha.
Alpha is an experiment brought to you by Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public”). Alpha is an AI research tool powered by GPT-4, a generative large language model. Alpha is experimental technology and may give inaccurate or inappropriate responses. Output from Alpha should not be construed as investment research or recommendations, and should not serve as the basis for any investment decision. All Alpha output is provided “as is.” Public makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, completeness, quality, timeliness, or any other characteristic of such output. Your use of Alpha output is at your sole risk. Please independently evaluate and verify the accuracy of any such output for your own use case.

Market Data.
Quotes and other market data for Public’s product offerings are obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but Public makes no representation or warranty regarding the quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness of this information. Such information is time sensitive and subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. You assume full responsibility for any trading decisions you make based upon the market data provided, and Public is not liable for any loss caused directly or indirectly by your use of such information. Market data is provided solely for informational and/or educational purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation and does not represent a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any particular security.

View Full Disclosures