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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

Twilio99¢99%
Cheniere Energy34¢34%
Okta19¢19%
$6,986.70 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Twilio is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceS&P Global
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$6,986.70
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Cloudflare
    Volume$1,061.06
    Price10¢
    -28.57% today
  • Twilio
    Volume$799.96
    Price100¢
    +1.02% today
  • Astera Labs
    Volume$773.22
    Price27¢
    -25.00% today
  • Cheniere Energy
    Volume$607.92
    Price34¢
    +13.33% today
  • SpaceX
    Volume$599.72
    Price8¢
    +80.00% today
  • Okta
    Volume$560.44
    Price100¢
    -66.07% today
  • Credo Technology
    Volume$439.54
    Price15¢
    -15.38% today
  • Roblox
    Volume$402.16
    Price10¢
    +33.33% today
  • ATI
    Volume$363.32
    Price13¢
    +62.50% today
  • Affirm Holdings
    Volume$313.04
    Price15¢
    +8.33% today

Trade No contracts

  • Cloudflare
    Volume$1,061.06
    Price96¢
    +2.15% today
  • Twilio
    Volume$799.96
    Price4¢
    -50.00% today
  • Astera Labs
    Volume$773.22
    Price76¢
    +7.89% today
  • Cheniere Energy
    Volume$607.92
    Price75¢
    -5.71% today
  • SpaceX
    Volume$599.72
    Price98¢
    -4.21% today
  • Okta
    Volume$560.44
    Price88¢
    0.00% today
  • Credo Technology
    Volume$439.54
    Price89¢
    +2.30% today
  • Roblox
    Volume$402.16
    Price98¢
    -2.13% today
  • ATI
    Volume$363.32
    Price96¢
    -5.43% today
  • Affirm Holdings
    Volume$313.04
    Price92¢
    -1.14% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?. The leading outcome is Twilio, with an estimated probability of 99% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? is Jan 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using S&P Global as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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