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Economics

Which central banks will hike before 2027?

Reserve Bank of Australia99¢99%
Bank of Canada94¢94%
Bank of England92¢92%
$63,046.44 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Reserve Bank of Australia raising its cash rate target is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate. The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used. If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$63,046.44
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Current players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event. For college leagues/associations specifically, or where otherwise appropriate (as identified by the Exchange), this applies to current players/coaches/staff of the specific sport in <event> rather than the league/association as a whole (e.g., if the Division I Gonzaga Men’s Basketball Team is playing in <event>, this prohibition will restrict trades by current players/coaches/staff on NCAA Basketball, rather than all current players/coaches/staff in any NCAA sport).
    • Paid employees of the league and league participants
    • Owners of teams and the league
    • and household members and immediate family of all above
    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Bank of England
    Volume$26,004.14
    Price98¢
    -4.17% today
  • Bank of Canada
    Volume$23,187.72
    Price94¢
    0.00% today
  • Riksbank
    Volume$4,929.68
    Price79¢
    -2.56% today
  • Reserve Bank of Australia
    Volume$4,321.34
    Price100¢
    +9,800.00% today
  • Swiss National Bank
    Volume$2,460.78
    Price15¢
    +80.00% today
  • Norges BankClosed
  • US Federal ReserveResolved

Trade No contracts

  • Bank of England
    Volume$26,004.14
    Price6¢
    +100.00% today
  • Bank of Canada
    Volume$23,187.72
    Price7¢
    0.00% today
  • Riksbank
    Volume$4,929.68
    Price24¢
    +9.09% today
  • Reserve Bank of Australia
    Volume$4,321.34
    Price100¢
    0.00% today
  • Swiss National Bank
    Volume$2,460.78
    Price94¢
    -8.89% today
  • Norges BankClosed
  • US Federal ReserveResolved

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which central banks will hike before 2027?. The leading outcome is Reserve Bank of Australia, with an estimated probability of 99% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which central banks will hike before 2027? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which central banks will hike before 2027?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Which central banks will hike before 2027?

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Which central banks will hike before 2027?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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