When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award. The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Nature, Politico, Reuters, Science, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the American Mathematical Society, the Associated Press, the Clay Mathematics Institute, the Fields Institute, the Institute for Advanced Study, the International Mathematical Union
- Est. resolution date—
- Total event volume$673,210.64
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
- Before 2028Volume$290,011.12Price6.9¢-11.43% today
- Before 2027Volume$249,520.14Price3.2¢-40.00% today
- Before 2029Volume$107,418.68Price19.9¢+10.56% today
- Before 2030Volume$20,454.34Price61.7¢+3.45% today
- Before 2035Volume$5,806.36Price87.8¢-5.54% today
Trade No contracts
- Before 2028Volume$290,011.12Price93.8¢+0.86% today
- Before 2027Volume$249,520.14Price98.8¢+0.82% today
- Before 2029Volume$107,418.68Price84.5¢-2.32% today
- Before 2030Volume$20,454.34Price43.8¢-4.76% today
- Before 2035Volume$5,806.36Price21.5¢+27.06% today
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When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
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Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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