When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If Riemann Hypothesis in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2035 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, Riemann Hypothesis in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Annals of Mathematics, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceAnnals of Mathematics, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Economist, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the American Mathematical Society, the Associated Press, the Clay Mathematics Institute, the International Mathematical Union, the New York Times
- Est. resolution date—
- Total event volume$10,463.04
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
- Before 2027Volume$5,623.90Price12¢0.00% today
- Before 2028Volume$3,051.72Price36¢-28.13% today
- Before 2029Volume$1,637.62Price39¢-7.50% today
- Before 2030Volume$148.68Price55¢-7.84% today
- Before 2035Volume$1.12Price71¢-16.67% today
- Before 2040Volume$0.00Price80¢-100.00% today
Trade No contracts
- Before 2027Volume$5,623.90Price92¢0.00% today
- Before 2028Volume$3,051.72Price73¢+13.24% today
- Before 2029Volume$1,637.62Price62¢+5.00% today
- Before 2030Volume$148.68Price55¢+8.16% today
- Before 2035Volume$1.12Price39¢+32.35% today
- Before 2040Volume$0.00Price30¢+300.00% today
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When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
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Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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