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What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?

Software/config error78¢78%
Human error35¢35%
Physical damage8¢8%
$1,531,534.22 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If a Source Agency confirms after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 that a software or configuration error caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on Nov 13, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. The ground stop is the nationwide departure ground stop the FAA ordered on Nov 13, 2026. A cause counts if a Source Agency reports it as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar or other system outage behind it. More than one market can resolve to Yes. System failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance/upgrade: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system Physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather Software/config error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade Contractor failure: the failure, damage, error or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor SMART system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems Human error: a mistake by a person, such as an FAA employee, air traffic controller, technician or contractor, set off the outage, including a wrong command, setting, procedure or physical action. A deliberate act meant to disrupt equipment or operations does not count. AI system error: an AI system or AI agent (a machine-learning model, large language model or autonomous agent) itself produced the action, output or change that caused the outage, and the Source Agency describes that system as AI. It does not count if AI was only part of the affected system, used by staff or contractors, running at the time, or used to help write software that later failed. Specific cause confirmed: a Source Agency confirms what caused the telecommunications outage behind the ground stop by naming a particular malfunction, error, damage or other event. If no cause is confirmed before Dec 1, 2026, this market resolves to No. L3Harris: the failure, damage, error or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network or a system that L3Harris Technologies runs, manages or oversees for the FAA, whoever caused it Verizon: the failure, damage, error or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network or a system that Verizon runs, manages or oversees for the FAA, whoever caused it The following do NOT count: A report that a cause is suspected, being investigated or has not been ruled out A statement that the ground stop followed a communication, radio or radar outage or issue, without saying what caused that outage A cause of a different outage or ground stop This market is NOT mutually exclusive: more than one market can resolve to Yes. For example, a problem with the SMART rollout can also count for Maintenance/upgrade and, if it is a software or configuration fault, for Software/config error.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, the New York Times
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$1,531,534.22
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Current players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event. For college leagues/associations specifically, or where otherwise appropriate (as identified by the Exchange), this applies to current players/coaches/staff of the specific sport in <event> rather than the league/association as a whole (e.g., if the Division I Gonzaga Men’s Basketball Team is playing in <event>, this prohibition will restrict trades by current players/coaches/staff on NCAA Basketball, rather than all current players/coaches/staff in any NCAA sport).
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    • and household members and immediate family of all above
    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
SMART system
$276.27K6¢+25.00%
Specific cause confirmedResolved
Maintenance/upgradeResolved
Software/config error
$162.64K79¢0.00%
Human error
$142.98K35¢+16.67%
L3HarrisResolved
AI system error
$133.14K6¢+150.00%
Contractor failureResolved
System failureResolved
Physical damage
$77.52K8¢+33.33%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
SMART system
$276.27K95¢-1.04%
Specific cause confirmedResolved
Maintenance/upgradeResolved
Software/config error
$162.64K22¢0.00%
Human error
$142.98K66¢-7.14%
L3HarrisResolved
AI system error
$133.14K95¢-3.06%
Contractor failureResolved
System failureResolved
Physical damage
$77.52K93¢-2.13%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?. The leading outcome is Software/config error, with an estimated probability of 78% and a Yes contract price of $0.79. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

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Each event contract represents an outcome for What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, the New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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